No 262: Round Up of UK Economic Data

 LOTS of important UK macro data in the last week or so.

(1) The Base Rate of Interest was put up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65554797

(2) UK GDP Growth in Q1 2023 was only 0.1%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65562888

(3) ***TODAY*** UK unemployment (Q1 2023) has gone up from 3.7% to 3.9%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/16/uk-payroll-fall-unemployment-rate-rises

Referring to such "fresh" data is sure to impress the examiner! Even better if you read the articles above and absorb some more detail.....

No 257: Many Important UK Economy Figures This Week

 A BUMPER week for UK economic data. Here is a summary, but make sure you also read the full article given for each one:

UK GDP Growth was -0.5% in December. But over the quarter (Oct, Nov, Dec) it was 0%, so the UK avoided (just!) being in a recession. uk q4 gdp

Wages increased by a near-record 6.7% in Q4 2022, but this is still far below inflation. Unemployment remained extremely low - 3.7% for Q4 2022. uk wages / unemployment

Inflation for January was 10.1%, lower than the 10.5% of December, but still near record high. A particular worry is inflation in food and drink prices, which was 16.7%. uk jan inflation figures

No 195: Unemployment in Selected Countries 2005-2011

No 181: What does this picture tell you about current UK unemployment?

I SAW this on Saturday, as I was walking to East Croydon college to attend a Maths class:

 

No 173: Top 10 Economics Stories of 2010

CLICK on this link to get to a sideshow from the "Daily Telegraph" of its top 10 economics new stories of 2010.

Here is a list of which stories they have included:

1. Deficit, debt and austerity worries

2. Government debt problems for European countries

3. Currency wars

4. Global imbalances in trade

5. China's continued growth

6. Difficulties with job creation

7. Inflation and interest rate decsisions

8. Problems for the Bank of England's monetary policy

9. The formation of the Office for Budget Responsibility

10. Unpredictable UK growth

These stories will be the starting point of our classes on Macroeconomics this coming term (5 more days of holidays - use them wisely and enjoy - I myself am mostly watching cricket!).

Therefore, please make sure you have a look. There may even be an exciting quiz about them next week.....


If you want more, here is a link to the Telegraph's Top 10 Banking Stories of 2010.


And if you'd like even more, this is a link to "The Week" magazine's Most Newsworthy Dogs of 2010, including the sad story of Target, the war hero dog :,(

 

No 168: Fun with Google Ngram

THE tools on "Google Labs" are really cool. For example, Google Ngram allows a user to search the millions of books scanned into Google Books, to find how often different words or names have appeared in the past.

This can be very interesting for us economists.


For instance, this is what happens if you search using "inflation" and "unemployment":

 

Let's be clear what this graph shows: how often books contain the words "inflation" and "unemployment" between 1800 and 2008.

Firstly, it is clear that few writers talked about either inflation or unemployment until about 1870. This is probably because early Economics was almost universally concerned with microeconomics.

Inflation is the first of the 2 terms to start to be written about, but it is overtaken by unemployment in about 1905. Both of the terms, but especially unemployment, show a huge increase during the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s.

After World War 2, the incidence of inflation increases and that of unemployment falls, perhaps due to the Phillips' Curve and its emphasis of the correlation between the two. In the 1970s, inflation leaps up to the same level as unemployment, at the same time as the world economic crisis of the time which saw high levels of both.

The peak for both came during the recession of the early 1980s.

Since then, the frequency drops, possibly due to the relatively good economic climate until the Credit Crunch. It will be interesting to see how it has increased during our current economic crisis, in a few years when the data is available.

Here are some more Ngram graphs:

Not quite sure about Karl Marx's popularity around 1700, about 120 years before he was born! I guess this also shows how Adam Smith's has continued to be a very important figure, even when Marx was at his most influential.

Two more - war and peace first:

How about tea and coffee:

Come on, then, why don't you have a go? Just go to Google Ngram and then tell us about the graph you made.




(Technical note: choosing the option to search through "English One Million" gives a more even sample over the different years.)

No 140: World Economic News

UK GDP expanded by 1.1% in the 3 months up to the end of June, a better performance than many expected.
This is compared to the 0.3% growth in quarter 1 of this year.

 Meanwhile South Korean growth slowed to 7.2% in 2010 Q2, from 8.1% in Q1.

USA growth dropped to 2.4% Q2 from 3.7% Q1.

Export figures boomed for India (up by 30.4% so far this year) and Malaysia (17.2% more compared to this time last year).

Unemployment fell in June in Brazil (to 7%) and Mexico (from 5.4% to 5.1%) but in the Eurozone stayed at 10%. Spain's jobless figure is still 20%.

Inflation decreased in Russia (down to 5.5% from 5.8%) and Switzerland (now 0.4%).

The generally positive news is reflected in the statistics for World GDP:

No 131: The end of cheap Chinese labour?

I HAVE just found this really interesting slide slow about this topic:

Click here to view it.

Each of the photos illustrates a powerful argument about why this might be happening. The arguments are:

1. The doubling of Foxconn workers' salaries after the suicides in factories making Apple products.
2. A recent article in the "People's Daily" (a Communist Party newspaper) calling for a revolt against the rich by poor workers.
3. Strike at a Hylandai factory in Beijing and subsequent 25% pay rises.
4. Honda workers going on strike even though they were offered 24-32% more pay.
5. The Beijing munipcal government raising its minimum wage by 20%.
6. The "one-child policy" leading to a shortage of labour supply.
7. A government half trillion dollar rural development programme leading to labour shortages in citiies.
8. New laws in 2008 for workers' rights.
9. Low wages being less benificial to China's economy than in the past.

On the last point, it has often been commented that wages inside China have been controlled in order to keep inflation down, while growth came from exports rather than domestic consumption. Perhaps the fall in world demand for Chinese products since the Credit Crunch may be changing this......

What do you think about it?

No 121: New economic indicators

RECENT changes to key economic figures:

Unemployment
Up to 2.51 million but rate remains 8%. The highest number of unemployed workers since Decemeber 1994.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10109965.stm

Balance of Trade
A deficit of £3.7 billion in March compared to £2.2 billion in February.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10113630.stm

Base Rate of Interest
Bank of England keeps it at 0.5% despite inflationary pressures. It has been at this level since March 2009.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10104900.stm

No 113: Now some bad!

IMPORTANT new economic figures announced in the past few days.

Today, new unemployment statistics showed a rise in the LFS to 2.5 million out of work, or 8% of the workforce. This is the highest since 1996.

This may not be as bad as it looks. Often, unemployment is "lagged", that is, it increases or decreases more slowly than other indicators such as GDP, due to the time taken for changes in the economy to be reacted to by firms. Therefore, the rest of the economy may be in recovery while the unemployment figures reflect earlier recessionary conditions.

On the other hand, the Claimant Count decreased by 33,000. This, however, is probably not a sign of lower joblessness but of people stopping looking for work -that is, becoming economically inactive. It seems though that a lot of these are becoming students, which, as you know, may mean future private and external benefits.

We must acknowledge that the new unemployment figures are serious, and damaging to a Labour government looking to get re-elected. Their response would proabably be that we have suffered the worst global economic crisis since 1929, and unemployment is still not as bad as it was during the recessions of both the early 1980s and 1990s. Whether recent policies have helped with this, is another question to be debated.

NOTICE MY FRIENDS THAT THIS POST CONTAINS MORE EVALUATION THAN I SEE IN A YEAR OF SOME STUDENTS' ESSAYS.

HOPE YOU CAN LEARN FROM IT!

No 111: Resources About Unemployment

SOME resources about unemployment.....

1) BBC UK JOBS TRACKER

This has videos and articles about recent UK news stories about unemployment.

Below is a screen shot, the real graphic is here

2) BBC ECONOMY TRACKER

Shows unemployment in different locations in the UK and how it has changed over recent years.

Screen shot below, real graphic here.

No 101: Update to Key Information

.

THERE have been a few changes to the UK macroeconomic indicators.

First was a fall in the rate of inflation in February, partly due to falling home fuel costs.

Second, another update that slightly increases 2009 Q4 GDP growth.

Third, a small fall in unemployment that has not changed the overall percentage.

So now the figures are:

• CPI INFLATION: 3.0% (FEB)

• UNEMPLOYMENT 7.8% (FEB)

• GDP GROWTH 0.4% (Q4 2009)

• TRADE BALANCE -£3.8 BILLION (JAN)

I don't want to repeat myself - I'm sure it bores you - but I  am disappointed when some students don't know these numbers. It will help you to get a better grade if you remember them!