Sunday, 27 February 2011

No 184: Mr Bowen's Weekly Questions (1)

AS you will know if you are in Mr (or Captain?) Bowen's class, he produces a very helpful list of weekly questions relating to those issues you should really be reading and thinking about.

Here is the list for last week. It would be an excellent idea to spend some time testing what you already know, and filling in the gaps in your knowledge if necessary.

  1. Why does inflation pose a great threat to global growth?
  2. Is there anything governments could or should about this threat?
  3. Why does the world economy need "rebalancing"?
  4. What is the PFI? Evaluate its recent performance.
  5. Why has the IMF lowered its growth forecast for the global economy?
  6. Why is the MPC split over the future of UK interest rates?
  7. Argue as a dove then argue as a hawk. Present both arguments and try to resolve them.
  8. "The history of the UK economy since the war seems to indicate that devaluation  and inflation have been the policy options that have been mostly unsuccessful. Yet we seem to be doing the same." Comment on this view.
  9. What is causing the current high level of inflation?
To these questions I would add one more:

    10. What is happening with Barclays Bank's profits and UK tax payments?

No 183: The Provinces of China Compared to Countries

THIS infographic from "The Economist" compares Chinese provinces with similar countries, in terms of GDP, GDP per capita, population and trade.

(To see a similar map about the USA see Post 37).

Thursday, 24 February 2011

No 182: World Economic News

HERE ARE the latest economic news stories from some of your countries. 

Please email me or add a comment if your country is not included here and you find a story of interest to us.

You can also try to answer some of the questions at the end of this post, if you like!

Russian Inflation Problems


Import tariffs on food have been removed, and there is a good chance that the central bank interest rate will be increased, in order to fight inflation. Government spending will also be tightly controlled this year.

The rate of inflation was 8.4% in 2010, but 2.4% just in January alone (which would work out as an annualised rate of more than 25% if repeated throughout 2011). The government inflation target is 7%. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12560719


Strong Growth in Hong Kong in 2010
The Hong Kong economy grew by 6.8% in 2010. Much of this was due to the expanding property market, and particularly from people from other areas of China investing their money into Hong Kong.

However, this has raised fears that there is a speculative bubble that might burst with disastrous results not just for Hong Kong but also the rest of China. Increased property prices are also affecting the general price level, leading to fears about rising inflation.

The Hong Kong government is trying to cool down the property market by making sure there is a supply of new land and new houses for sale - difficult in such an crowded place! Other measures include a 20% tax if owners sell a property within 2 years of buying it, and restrictions that stop buyers of luxury properties borrowing more than 50% of the sale price.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12548766


Vietnam Government Raises Interest Rates
The Vietnamese government is taking measures to fight inflation, which is currently 12%. The base rate of interest has gone up from 11% to 12%.

There are further fears of increased inflation since electricity prices are due to rise 15% on March 1. There are also criticisms that government itself has contributed to inflation through its devaluation of the currency of 8.5% earlier this month. This was done because of Vietnam's 2010 trade deficit of over $12 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/vietnam-premier-to-push-central-bank-to-fight-inflation.html


Bad News and Bad News in Japan
In a surprising development, Japan has posted its first trade deficit in 2 years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12548277

Also this week, Moodys - an agency which rates how safe it thinks different countries' government bonds are - downgraded Japanese government bonds from AA to AA-. This is due to worries about government borrowing and spending. Japan has the world's 2nd highest government debt to GDP ratio, with 196%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12533405



QUESTIONS FOR EXTRA ANALYSIS
1. Why is the Russian government especially worried about the food supply at the moment?
2. Find out more about the Russian government's inflation target: how long has it been 7%? Is there any room for error? What happens if the central bank fail to achieve the target?
3. Find evidence to support the view that the Hong Kong property market is a bubble dangerously close to bursting. Find evidence against this view.
4. Do you think the Hong Kong government's measure will work?
5. Who decides prices of utilities such as electricity in Vietnam?
6. What are the possible positive effects for Vietnam of its currency devaluation?
7. What contributed to Japan's recent trade deficit? Why was it a surprise?
8. Why has government spending and borrowing recently increased again in Japan?

9. From the stories above, what seem to be the common economic problems affecting different countries at the moment?

Wednesday, 23 February 2011

No 181: What does this picture tell you about current UK unemployment?

I SAW this on Saturday, as I was walking to East Croydon college to attend a Maths class:

 

Tuesday, 22 February 2011

No 180: BBC TV Show About Ireland

LAST NIGHT'S BBC Panaroma show was about the crash of the Irish economy.

The 30 minute show is really worth watching if you have the time. It details how the bubble in the property market burst leading to economic disaster.

Especially interesting is the interview with an Irish property speculator who refuses to apologise for his behaviour (like most Irish politicians). Mind you, he does personally owe 154 million euros due to the property market crash....

Here is the link to the programme on the BBC I Player:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00z0fyd/Panorama_How_to_Blow_a_Fortune/

Be quick though, it's only available to watch for 12 months!!!

Monday, 7 February 2011

No 179: Name the famous economists

BELOW is a screenshot from a quiz about famous economists that can be found here.


Notice the 3 minute time limit.

That means that even Googlers will have to be quick in order to answer in time!

Let us know how long you take to complete it......




Thursday, 3 February 2011

No 178: Can you see what is wrong with this picture from Fox News?

No 177: The first economist and the first economic question

ACCORDING to a book I am currently reading - Dr. Strangelove's Game: A Brief History of Economic Genius -  the first person who can be clearly recognised as an economic thinker was Sir William Petty (1623-1687). (This links to a Wikipedia article about him.)


Not the best looking man who ever lived, he was called a "bumptious and somewhat unpleasant man."

One reason why he was so important is that he seems to be the first person to have tred to put a monetary value on everything, with what he called "political arithmatiek". This included human life.

In measuring the value of the labour working on his vast lands in Ireland, he valued the worth of each working man at twenty times his annual income.

Doing this was an important development in the history of human thought. Firstly, it made it "possible to calculate the loss to a nation by deaths, especially in times of war and plague" (Dr Strangelove's Game p.21). In addition, a money value for everything "gave a common denominator against which everything could be measured" (p.22).


The true monetary value of a human life is a question economists are trying to answer even now, centuries later.

Some people are very uncomfortable with the idea of trying to do this.

However, if we believe that governments should take all costs and benefits into account before deciding whether or not to spend money on a project, the possible loss of human life must be included. For example, when deciding to build a road, the possible costs of traffic accidents need to be calculated.

This links to a very simplistic yet fun way of calculating your own worth. As you can see, I have tried it:


(If you try it, you need to make sure you click "scan" at the end to see the results.)

The maximum value of $10 would be achieved, according to the site, if you were a male, 33 years old, from Luxembourg, with a perfect body.

When I tried this again, with all the information the same except being a Mrs. Spottiswoode, instead of Mr, my value had fallen to $4.43. So it seems that a British woman is worth about a third less than a British man.........

Of course, this is fairly primative stuff. It's really just to stimulate discussion I think, so please don't take it too seriously!

However, there are of course serious issues here.

For instance, this article talks about how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of the USA, in 2008 reduced its calculation of the value of an American human life from $7.8 million down to $6.9 million.

Critics of this decision speculated that the agency made the change so the Bush government could avoid tougher regulations on air pollution, water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental problems.
 
This article talks about valuing a year of human life. Doing this is important in assessing whether medical insurance companies should offer to pay for the cost of a new medical treatment or piece of equipment.  Previously, insurance companies calculated that to make a treatment worth its cost, it must guarantee one year of "quality life" for $50,000 or less. However, economists from Stanford University have written a report arguing it should go up to $129,000.

This suggest that by placing too low a value on human life, insurance companies have been avoiding paying for medical treatment that they should have been providing.

It seems then that the issue of the value of human life is as controversial now as it was in Sir William Petty's time.

It also seems that we still very far away from agreeing what that value should be.