Wednesday 22 February 2023

260: You Cannot Eat Your Salad Even If You Want To

YESTERDAY I was in my favourite coffee shop, and heard a woman from the next table saying, "I've spent all morning trying to buy a pepper - six supermarkets, and couldn't find one in any of them!" "You need to get a life," her friend said.

If you have been to a UK supermarket in the last few days you too may have noticed large gaps in the fruit and vegetable sections (see the photo below). While some of us may not be too upset at not being able to eat our salad, it is nonetheless always worrying when important foodstuffs disappear from our shops. As this article recounts (asda-morrisons-ration-tomatoes-peppers-fruit), the supermarkets Asda and Morrisons (***Breaking News - now Aldi and Tesco's too***) are restricting the amount of some types of fruit and veg to only two packs per person - and when rationing of something starts, that is a sure sign of problems in markets.

The secret about learning Economics is that although it is hard at first, many of the ideas you study in the first year are relevant forever after, even for university academics or newspaper journalists. Here are the factors that seem to be causing the shortages. Think about how you would use a supply/diagram to talk about this, and you will have a spot on analysis of the whole situation.

(1) Bad weather and storms in the Mediterranean and North Africa.

(2) Bad frosts before Christmas affecting UK crops.

(3) High energy costs putting off growers in the Netherlands, who use large greenhouses to produce fruit and vegetables all year around.

(4) Time consuming and costly UK border checks discouraging overseas suppliers from wanting to sell their produce here.





No 259: Excellent Introductory Article to Government Borrowing

 PUBLIC finances are an important part of the Economics course and a crucial current UK issue (as shown by the last post), but it is a tricky topic, especially the subject of government borrowing.

Hence all of you should read this excellent article from BBC News: How much money is the UK government borrowing, and does it matter?


No 258: Lots of Lovely Tax Money!

A PLEASANT surprise for the UK Government - public finances for January were in surplus, with £5.4bn more received in tax than was spent.

It seems there were two reasons for this. Self-employed workers (e.g. tradespeople like plumbers, business workers like consultants) pay their income tax once a year. The deadline is the end of March (the end of the financial year) but it seems that more people than ever decided to pay early, hence a large boost to tax revenue.

There has also been less spending than expected on subsidies for household energy bills, since the prices of gas and oil have not gone by as much as forecast.

This surplus has led to calls for the government to cut taxes / increase spending in the March Budget. But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says this is only a blip, and the wider picture is still excessive government debt from the shocks of Covid and the Ukraine War (see the chart below). Nonetheless, striking state workers like nurses and teachers will certainly think it makes their case for the government to pay them higher wages stronger.

As always, my summary is only that, so make sure to read the full story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64705051







Wednesday 15 February 2023

No 257: Many Important UK Economy Figures This Week

 A BUMPER week for UK economic data. Here is a summary, but make sure you also read the full article given for each one:

UK GDP Growth was -0.5% in December. But over the quarter (Oct, Nov, Dec) it was 0%, so the UK avoided (just!) being in a recession. uk q4 gdp

Wages increased by a near-record 6.7% in Q4 2022, but this is still far below inflation. Unemployment remained extremely low - 3.7% for Q4 2022. uk wages / unemployment

Inflation for January was 10.1%, lower than the 10.5% of December, but still near record high. A particular worry is inflation in food and drink prices, which was 16.7%. uk jan inflation figures

Sunday 12 February 2023

No 256: Battle of the Bots

 YOU may feel there is pressure on you to get it right when you do a test or exam, but imagine giving one wrong answer that cost you $106 billion!

As this article explains, exactly that happened earlier on this week when Alphabet (owner of Google) demonstrated its new AI rival to ChatGPT, called Bard. It gave wrong information about the James Webb space telescope, and markets took this as such a negative sign of Bard’s capabilities that within a day Alphabet’s shares lost 9% in value.

This comes in a week when Microsoft announced a deal to use ChatGPT technology in its Bing search engine. Currently, only 3% of internet searches are done using Bing, while Google search accounts for 90%. However Microsoft estimates that every 1% of the search engine market represents $2 billion extra in advertising revenue. Let’s say they pay ChatGPT $10 billion and this in turn increases Bing’s share by 5% - this would obviously be well worth it. On the other hand you can bet that Alphabet will be putting lots of money in developing Bard, especially its knowledge of astronomy!

No 255: My verdict on chatgpt for Economics essays

 AS you can see from the previous post, I have been playing around with chatgpt - a new AI chat bot I am sure most of you will have heard of. I got it to write an IB IA, an A-Level 25 mark essay, and a competition essay.

And the verdict is….. don’t bother using it for your own work. Apart from it being morally wrong to do so, you will not get a good mark if you do. I marked what chatgpt did - the IA scored a 4, the A-Level essay a D, the competition essay was only mediocre. While it can produce a reasonably general Economics essay for, say, a blog, it is simply is not able to follow the very particular demands of a specialist Economics essay (which, by the way, is what you are learning to write!). Some people have also said that what one could do is use it for the basis of an essay and then modify the result. I think you would spend more time on the modifying than it would take to write it from scratch yourself.

So my message is, sorry,  you’d better do your own homework!!!!

Thursday 2 February 2023

No 253: Bank Of England Increases Interest Rates

 THIS morning the Bank of England increased it's Bae Rate of Interest to 4% up from 3.5%. The effect of this will for all other banks to put up their interest rates too. This is a good brief explainer from the BBC: